On to Oregon and Kentucky...

After a decisive win in West Virginia, it looks like traders are taking Hillary Clinton at her word that she will remain in the primary race until June (at least). While her contract to win the Democratic nomination is trading at 6, her contract to drop out in May is only trading at 14. By comparison, Clinton’s DROPOUT.JUN08 contract is up to 83. While traders are predicting which month Clinton exits, Obama’s contracts are climbing – his contract to win the White House reached 57 today. Also, check out the new “2008 VP Nominee” contracts which have an updated list of possible running mates for each party. So far the VP favorites are Hillary Clinton for the Democrats, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty for the GOP.

Our Best 3 Traders in This Month

Clinton for VP?

Traders are predicting that the stalemate in the Democratic contest will continue as voters go to the polls tomorrow in Indiana and North Carolina. Polls in the last week have not suggested that either state is solidly in the Clinton or Obama column, but traders have decisively predicted a win for Obama in North Carolina and a Clinton win in Indiana. In the month ahead, Obama is favored by traders in Oregon and Montana, while Clinton is favored in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. When and how will this impasse be resolved? The Atlantic’s Andrew Sullivan suggested yesterday in The Sunday Times that an Obama-Clinton general election ticket “is now worth actively considering for the first time in this campaign” and some traders believe that could now be a plausible solution. Overnight, Clinton’s contract to be Vice President is up 6 points and is the most popular contract on the board.

Indiana is the new Pennsylvania

This morning’s memo from the Clinton campaign spoke of a turning tide in the race for the Democratic nomination after Hillary Clinton’s solid win yesterday in Pennsylvania. Not so fast warns Hotline Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter, who wrote today that after “Bittergate and Bosnia-gate, bowling and Crown Royal shots, Osama bin Laden and the Weather Underground, untold hours of TV coverage and millions of dollars spent on voter persuasion…The race. Hasn't. Moved. One. Bit.” Traders seem to agree: Hillary Clinton’s contract to win the nomination is trading at nearly the same price it was a week ago, and Obama still has the edge with the superdelegates – whose votes could decide this contest after all. Looking forward to the next big contests in North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, traders are still favoring Clinton in the Hoosier state, and Obama in N.C. Indiana is shaping up to be an interesting contest: Obama has yet to lose in a state bordering Illinois, but the state’s demographics favor Clinton, not to mention that she has the support of the state’s popular Senator, Evan Bayh…And a note to Democrats who are worried that the lengthy primary contest is helping the Republican nominee -- John McCain’s contract to win the White House has changed little over the last month…it is hovering around 40 today.

A Bitterly Close Race

-Hillary Clinton’s contract to win the nomination got a little boost over the weekend after Barack Obama’s “bitter” remarks at a closed-door San Francisco fundraiser were made public. It's too soon to tell whether Obama’s resulting reputation as “elitist” and “out of touch” will affect his numbers, but polls today show Obama’s national lead is holding strong and his contract to win the nomination is hovering around 81. Clinton is still the favorite to win in Pennsylvania and tonight the candidates will debate there after days of negative exchanges between the two candidates.
-A Washington Post/ABC News poll today showed that 39 percent of Americans consider Hillary Clinton “honest and trustworthy”, which is down 13 points from May 2006. The Post cited Clinton aides who acknowledged that Clinton’s sniper-fire flap contributed to that drop.
-Traders are predicting that both Clinton and Obama will have victory parties on May 6: Obama is heavily favored by traders in North Carolina – his contract is trading at 90. Bets are on Hillary Clinton in Indiana – her contract to win the Hoosier state is trading at 55. A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll in the state found that 40 percent of those polled planned to vote for Obama, 35 percent for Clinton and 19 percent were still undecided.